The latest NBC News poll reveals that independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is eroding former President Donald Trump’s support more than President Joe Biden’s.
What Happened: The poll released on Sunday shows Trump leading Biden by a slim margin of 2 percentage points in a direct face-off, 46% to 44%. However, when the ballot is expanded to include five named candidates, Biden edges ahead with a 2-point lead: Biden 39%, Trump 37%, Kennedy 13%, Jill Stein 3% and Cornel West 2%, reported NBC News.
Interestingly, the poll indicates that a larger portion of Trump voters in the direct matchup are switching their support to Kennedy in the expanded ballot. Fifteen percent of respondents who initially chose Trump are now backing Kennedy in the five-way ballot, compared to just 7% of those who initially picked Biden.
Republican voters have a more favorable view of Kennedy (40% positive, 15% negative) than Democratic voters (16% positive, 53% negative). “At this stage, [Kennedy’s] appeal looks to be more with Trump than Biden voters,” Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt, who conducted the NBC News poll with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, noted.
However, this finding contradicts traditional political wisdom and results of other national polls, which suggest that a larger third-party vote is more detrimental to Biden. The NBC News poll results on Kennedy’s impact are “different than other surveys,” said McInturff. “So there’s always two possibilities: One, it’s an outlier. … Or two, we’re going to be seeing more of this, and our survey is a harbinger of what’s to come.”
See Also: Trump vs. Biden: Nationwide Poll Shows Key Issue Decidedly Tilts Equation In Favor Of One Candidate
Why It Matters: The 2024 presidential election has been shaping up as a rematch between Biden and Trump.
However, the emergence of Kennedy as a significant third-party candidate could disrupt the dynamics of the race.
Despite Trump’s legal challenges and ongoing criminal trials, he has been gaining support. Meanwhile, Biden has been dominating the youth vote.
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